Vulnerability assessment of food crop production and climate change: Implication for Agricultural Productivity and Development in Nigeria

Abstract: Climate change poses significant challenges to agriculture, particularly in developing nations like Nigeria, where the sector is highly dependent on rain-fed farming systems. Extremic weather events such as prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, flooding, and rising temperatures threaten agricultural productivity, food security, and rural livelihoods. This study examines the vulnerability of food crops to climate change, focusing on smallholder farmers’ perceptions and adaptation strategies. Using a multistage sampling technique, data were collected from 480 smallholder farmers across selected agro-ecological zones in Nigeria. The study employed descriptive statistics and a crop vulnerability scale to assess the susceptibility of key food crops—maize, cassava, sorghum, rice, millet, soybean, and yam—to climate extremes. Findings reveal that drought is the most critical climate-induced stressor affecting food crops, with maize and cassava exhibiting the highest vulnerability indices. Flooding also presents a substantial risk, particularly to maize, while temperature fluctuations have relatively less severe immediate impacts. The study highlights the importance of climate information dissemination, cooperative memberships, and extension services in enhancing farmers’ resilience. However, limited access to climate information remains a significant barrier to adaptation. Given the observed variability in crop vulnerability, targeted climate adaptation strategies, including drought-resistant crop varieties, improved drainage systems, and early warning mechanisms, are recommended. This study underscores the urgent need for climate-smart agricultural policies and resilience-building measures to safeguard food production and rural livelihoods in Nigeria amid escalating climate change threats.